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Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Asteroid 2024 BX1’s Collision with Earth

     Asteroid 2024 BX1’s Collision with Earth   

A small asteroid about 3 feet (1 meter) in size disintegrated harmlessly over Germany on Sunday, 21 Jan 24, at 1:32 a.m. local time (CET). At 95 minutes before it impacted Earth’s atmosphere, NASA’s Scout impact hazard assessment system, which monitors data on potential asteroid discoveries, gave advance warning as to where and when the asteroid would impact. This is the eighth time in history that a small Earth-bound asteroid has been detected while still in space, before entering and disintegrating in our atmosphere.  Veteran asteroid hunter Sárneczky’s discovery of an incoming asteroid led to a coordinated global response, culminating in the successful observation of the asteroid 2024 BX1’s impact near Berlin. This event underscores the progress in space monitoring technology and the value of international collaboration.  On 20 January, 2024, astronomer Krisztián Sárneczky detected an asteroid on an imminent collision course with Earth. Just hours later, it struck our planet’s atmosphere 50 km west of Berlin, producing a stunning fireball. Named ‘2024 BX1’, this is just the eighth asteroid that humankind has spotted before impact – and the third discovered by Sárneczky. The asteroid’s impact produced a bright fireball, or bolide, which was seen from as far away as the Czech Republic and may have scattered small meteorites on the ground at the impact site about 37 miles (60 kilometers) west of Berlin. The asteroid was later designated 2024 BX1. 

While NASA reports on near-Earth objects (NEOs) of all sizes, the agency has been tasked with detecting and tracking NEOs 140 meters in size and larger which could cause significant damage on the ground if they should impact our planet. Those objects can be spotted much further in advance than small ones like 2024 BX1. Tiny asteroids like this one impact our planet from time to time. They pose no hazard to life on Earth but can provide a useful demonstration of NASA’s planetary defense capabilities such as Scout’s rapid-response trajectory computation and impact alerts.

Discovery of Asteroid 2024 BX1

It was at 22:48 CET on Saturday, 20 Jan, 24 when veteran asteroid hunter Sárneczky discovered a new asteroid using the 60 cm Schmidt Telescope at Piszkéstető Mountain Station, part of Konkoly Observatory in Hungary. He immediately sent his data on the asteroid’s trajectory to the Minor Planet Centre, but with just three initial observations, it was impossible to know for sure whether it was on a collision course with Earth. However, Sárneczky continued tracking the asteroid, and just a few minutes later, he shared four more observations that clearly indicated a 100 % chance of an imminent impact. The final detection of asteroid 2024 BX1 (initially known as Sar2736 prior to impact) obtained by Luca Buzzi from the Schiaparelli Observatory in Italy. The exposure was started at 00:24:55 UTC on 20 Jan, 2024. The asteroid is traveling from the centre of the image towards the top and begins to fade from view as it enters Earth’s shadow. 

How it was Predicted?

The asteroid 2024 BX1 was first observed less than three hours before its impact by Krisztián Sárneczky at Piszkéstető Mountain Station of the Konkoly Observatory near Budapest, Hungary. These early observations were reported to the Minor Planet Centre – the internationally recognized clearinghouse for the position measurements of small solar system bodies – and automatically posted on the centre's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page so that other astronomers could make additional observations. Scout, which was developed and is operated by the Centre for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, automatically fetched the new data from that page, deducing the object’s possible trajectory and chances of impacting Earth. CNEOS calculates the orbit of every known NEO to provide assessments of potential impact hazards for the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) at NASA Headquarters in Washington. With three observations posted to the confirmation page over 27 minutes, Scout initially identified that an impact was possible and that additional observations were urgently needed. As astronomers across Europe reported new data to the Minor Planet Centre, the asteroid’s trajectory became better known and the probability of its impacting Earth significantly increased. Seventy minutes after 2024 BX1 was first spotted, Scout reported a 100% probability of Earth impact and began to narrow down the location and time. As tracking continued and more data became available over the next hour, Scout improved estimates of the time and location. Since the asteroid disintegrated over a relatively populated part of the world, many photos and videos of the fireball were posted online minutes after the event.

Response and Impact

Automatic impact monitoring systems around the world, including ESA’s ‘Meerkat’, responded to these new data and sprang into action, issuing an alert to astronomers and asteroid experts. Sárneczky continued to make and report his observations and was soon joined by others in Europe. More than a dozen observatories turned their eyes toward the incoming object. With their help, it soon became clear that the small asteroid, roughly one meter in size, would impact Earth in less than two hours, approximately 50 km west of Berlin, Germany.

Predicted impact location and time computed by ESA’s imminent impactor alert system “Meerkat” following the first 14 observations of the object Sar2736 (later designated asteroid 2024 BX1). Meerkat updates assessments each time it receives new observations. Asteroids of this size strike Earth on average every couple of weeks. They pose no significant danger, and most are never detected. But they can help us understand how many small asteroids are out there and we can study the fireballs they produce to determine what they are made of , if we can catch them on camera. The large asteroids which are many km's in diameter are much easier to spot and relatively rare. The vast majority of near-Earth asteroids that would cause devastating damage if they were to impact our planet have already been spotted, and we know of none that will collide with our planet for at least the next one hundred years.

Significance of the Event 

As Saturday night became Sunday morning, astronomers continued to track asteroid 2024 BX1 until, at 01:25 CET, it entered Earth’s shadow and disappeared from view. Observers held their breath, but they didn’t have to wait for long. Just a few minutes later, at 01:32 CET, 2024 BX1 struck Earth’s atmosphere and burned an explosive streak through the night sky. Many people in the Berlin area and across central Europe were able to witness the fireball, and a handful of people and automated camera systems even managed to record it. The Scout impact assessment system calculated where and when the asteroid 2024 BX1 would impact Earth’s atmosphere, providing a useful demonstration of planetary defense capability.

Asteroid was later named 2024 BX1, this is just the eighth asteroid that humankind has spotted before impact. Thanks to the rapid response and information sharing from Earth’s asteroid and fireball communities, including ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre, many people were able to see and record this spectacular sight, despite it taking place with just hours’ notice and in the middle of the night. This video was captured by the AllSky7 network. Only eight asteroids have ever been detected before impact with Earth’s atmosphere. The first of these discoveries took place in 2008, and four were detected in just the last two years. As humankind’s ability to detect smaller space objects continues to improve, this number is likely to rise exponentially in the coming years.

During the three hours between detection and impact, around 180 observations were submitted to the Minor Planet Centre, including those of ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre taken from Tenerife, Spain. Visualization of the trajectory and impact of asteroid 2024 BX1 on January 21, 2024, created using the Flyby Visualization Tool of ESA’s Near Earth Object Coordination Centre. Thanks to the rapid response and information sharing from Earth’s asteroid and fireball communities, many people were able to see and record this spectacular sight, despite it taking place with just hours’ notice and in the middle of the night. The hunt is now on for any potential meteorites that survived the fiery journey through the atmosphere and made it to the ground.

Tracking NEOs

The first asteroid to be discovered and tracked well before impacting our planet was 2008 TC3, which entered our atmosphere and broke up over Sudan in October 2008. That 13-foot-wide (4-meter-wide) asteroid scattered hundreds of small meteorites over the Nubian Desert. In early 2023, another tiny asteroid, designated 2023 CX1, was detected seven hours before it entered Earth’s atmosphere over north western France. As with 2024 BX1, Scout accurately predicted the location and time of impact. With NEO surveys becoming more sophisticated and sensitive, more of these harmless objects are being detected before entering our atmosphere, providing real exercises for NASA’s planetary defense program. The details gathered from such events are helping to inform the agency’s mitigation strategies should a large and hazardous object on a collision course with our planet be detected in the future.


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