Weather could change worldwide because critical Atlantic ocean current is weakening
A crucial Atlantic Ocean current which helps stabilize Earth’s climate is slowing down, and scientists say the effects could ripple across the globe. Scientists have uncovered strong evidence that a major Atlantic Ocean current system tied to global climate is weakening. The slowdown has been detected across a vast region of the North Atlantic over nearly two decades. Since this ocean circulation helps regulate weather and temperatures, changes could affect storms, rainfall, sea levels and even winter conditions in parts of Europe and North America. Atlantic Ocean circulation system plays a central role in regulating Earth’s climate has been weakening for nearly 20 years. Scientists say the slowdown spans a large portion of the Atlantic and could eventually alter weather patterns in many parts of the world, according to new observations spanning nearly 20 years. Scientists say the slowdown stretches across a large section of the Atlantic Ocean and could eventually alter weather patterns around the world. The research was led by scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science. Their findings provide some of the strongest direct observational evidence so far that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is losing strength. The results could help researchers improve climate models and better understand how ongoing climate change may affect the future weather and ocean conditions.
“A weaker AMOC can shift weather patterns, potentially leading to more extreme storms, changes in rainfall, or colder winters in some regions,” said Shane Elipot, a senior author of the study and physical oceanographer at the Rosenstiel School. “It can also influence sea-level rise along coastlines, affecting communities and infrastructure.” To investigate changes in the AMOC, researchers examined long-term data collected from four ocean monitoring arrays positioned along the western side of the North Atlantic. The monitoring sites ranged from tropical waters to higher latitudes. The instruments, anchored to the seafloor, continuously measured pressure, temperature, density and ocean currents. Scientists used the same analysis method at every site, using changes in bottom pressure to estimate deep ocean flow below about 1,000 meters. By comparing the data across locations and over long periods of time, the team identified a sustained decline in the strength of the overturning circulation and identified long-term changes in the circulation system. Their observations revealed a steady decline in an important part of the AMOC along the western boundary of the Atlantic, extending from the subtropics to mid-latitudes (about 16.5°N to 42.5°N). Because the slowdown appeared across such a broad area, researchers say it likely reflects a large-scale shift in the Atlantic Ocean rather than a temporary variation.
The AMOC is one of the most important systems controlling climate in the Atlantic region. It helps distribute heat through the ocean, influencing temperatures, weather patterns, and sea levels, especially around the North Atlantic. Scientists say a weaker AMOC could affect many aspects of global climate, including European winters, hurricane activity and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world. Researchers also believe measurements taken along the western edge of the Atlantic could act as an early warning system for long-term climate changes. They compared the monitoring approach to a canary in a coal mine because it may provide an efficient way to detect major shifts in this climate-regulating circulation. “This research helps scientists better predict how the climate may change in the coming decades—information that governments, businesses, and communities use to prepare for future environmental conditions,” said Elipot. The study, titled "Meridionally consistent decline in the observed western boundary contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation," was published in Science Advances. Funding for the research came from the US National Science Foundation (OCE-2148723 and OCE-2334091) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council grants (NE/Y003551/1 and NE/Y005589/1).
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