Greenland ice weakening by something unusual before it broke apart
A rare estuary carved into Greenland’s Petermann Ice Shelf, potentially weakening the ice before a Manhattan-sized piece broke away. In August 2026, a chunk of ice the size of Manhattan broke away from northern Greenland’s Petermann Ice Shelf. It was the glacier’s largest loss of floating ice since 2012 and the Arctic’s largest calving event since 2020. New research helps explain why that section of ice gave way. An iceberg the size of Manhattan broke away from the Petermann Ice Shelf in northern Greenland. It was the glacier's largest calving event since 2020. Long before the breakup, CIRES scientists were developing a new method to understand the planet's first known ice shelf estuary on the Petermann Ice Shelf. New CIRES-led research explains how and when the estuary formed, something no one had studied until now. Before the August breakup, CIRES scientists were already investigating something unusual on Petermann: Earth’s first known ice shelf estuary. That’s a spot where salt water from the ocean mixes with fresh water from a river flowing across the ice surface. Scientists first reported the estuary in 2021.
“For the first time, we were able to measure how quickly the river cut into the ice shelf to form the estuary, which revealed more complex estuary behavior than was previously suggested,” said Michela Savignano, a CU Boulder geography and CIRES doctoral student at CU Boulder. “We did this using a new method for calculating the elevation of the river channel above sea level during the melt season from satellite imagery.” The findings may help explain why Petermann lost such a large piece of ice this past summer. “We think the process of estuary forming and reforming over multiple melt seasons weakened the ice shelf due to the loading and unloading of ocean water, and potentially contributed to the calving event that happened in August of this year,” said co-author Alison Banwell, a research scientist at CIRES Earth Science and Observation Center . The research may help explain the August calving event. The research builds on a 2021 study led by one of the new study's co-authors, Alexandra Boghosian, that confirmed the first ice shelf estuary using high-resolution satellite images. The images revealed chunks of sea ice floating up the river channel onto the Petermann Ice Shelf. Understanding the estuary requires understanding supraglacial rivers, rivers that flow on the surface of ice shelves and empty into the ocean.
Understanding this estuary means understanding supraglacial rivers. These are waterways which flow across the surface of ice shelves and eventually drain into the ocean. During summer, when air temperatures climb above freezing, glaciers and surface snow begin to melt. Water pools on the surface, creating instability which makes ice shelves more vulnerable to collapse. That’s exactly what happened during the well-known Larsen B ice shelf breakup back in 2002. Yet rivers that flow from these pools can reduce pressure and weight by carrying water from the ice shelf into the ocean. "We've known for a couple of decades that lakes can be harmful to the overall health of an ice shelf, whereas rivers can actually be beneficial," Banwell said. "Our new research suggests that estuaries can also be harmful." The supraglacial river on Petermann began like any other, but over time it cut deep into the ice, eventually dropping below sea level at its mouth. The authors measured the river's incision rate from the surface of the river all the way down to the bottom of the channel. The estuary formed because the river incised below sea level, enabling warmer, salty ocean water and river water to mix and flow backward into the river.
By carrying meltwater off the ice shelf and into the ocean, they can actually reduce pressure and weight. This reduction makes the ice shelf more stable. “We’re using satellite data not to just look at where the water is and how deep it is, but also to look at elevation change over time, and how quickly the river is cutting into the ice surface,” Savignano said. The researchers looked at satellite images of the estuary from 2013–2018 and concluded that it formed, disappeared and reformed repeatedly across multiple summers. The researchers found that the estuary began forming in 2014, then disappeared when all of the surface water on the ice shelf drained or froze. It formed again late in the 2016 melt season. This cyclical pattern continued through 2018, when a crack in the ice perpendicular to the ice flow cut off the river upstream of the estuary. Instability caused by estuaries could lead to more calving events, an increasing challenge in the polar regions as the planet warms. This includes Antarctica, where about 75% of the continent is surrounded by ice shelves.
"We think estuaries may become more common on other ice shelves as they melt and thin, which they're going to do at increasing rates in the future," Banwell said. "It will be easier for a surface river to incise down to sea level." The research will help scientists monitor and predict when and where estuaries may appear in the future. "Only five ice shelves remain in Greenland, including Petermann, and estuaries could make them more prone to breakup," Savignano said. "In Antarctica, estuaries could begin forming within 30 years, weakening ice shelves that currently play a substantial role in mitigating future sea level rise. Our research will help us to understand when and where that is most likely to happen." Estuaries could contribute to ice shelf instability as the planet continues warming. This matters enormously for Antarctica, where ice shelves surround roughly 75% of the continent. The study was led by the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado Boulder.

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