Doñana wetland of Spain could disappear in near future

Doñana wetlands could vanish in next 60 years, Satellite data suggest

Satellite imagery and machine-learning analysis have revealed a troubling decline in water presence across Doñana NP in southern Spain, suggesting that this iconic wetland could disappear within the next 60 years if current trends continue. A new study has found that wetlands in southern Spain’s Doñana region could disappear in about 61 years if current conditions continue. This finding highlights a near-term risk for one of Europe’s most important wetland ecosystems. Across Doñana’s marshland, wet ground and open water continued to shrink during the study period, leaving less of the flooded habitat the ecosystem depends on. Using this record, Emilio Ramírez Juidias at the University of Seville documented a steady contraction across the marsh. The loss did not unfold evenly, because about 15% of average wet area, water volume and depth disappeared since 2005, and more than 13% of that drop came after 2010.

Doñana, a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and vital stop-over, breeding and wintering site for thousands of migratory water birds, has already experienced substantial losses in recent decades. Data from 2005-2024 show some 15% decline in average wet surface area, water volume and depth, with the bulk of this reduction occurring since 2010 as temperatures rose and rainfall decreased sharply. Illegal groundwater extraction in the surrounding area has further compounded the drying of the marshes. This acceleration makes the finding harder to dismiss as a routine dry spell and sets up the deeper question of why rain no longer restores the marsh as it once did. Standard satellite images struggle in marshes because reeds can hide shallow water from simple color-based checks. The system relied on machine learning to detect patterns and identify water even through patches of vegetation. By comparing red and near-infrared light, it detected wet soil and surface water in images from Sentinel-2, a European Earth-observing satellite system which repeatedly scans land surfaces, with 91.3% accuracy. Field checks backed the model’s results, which matters because conservation decisions fall apart when a monitoring tool misses hidden moisture.

For most of the record, wetter months still meant a fuller marsh, because winter rain spread shallow water across the flat plain. Month-by-month comparisons showed that wetter periods still brought more surface water across the marsh. However, from 2020 onward, some rainy periods no longer rebuilt the marsh, suggesting reduced water retention. Once water retention weakens, a normal rainy season cannot fully repair damage that has accumulated for years beneath the surface. The research, led by the University of Seville and published in the journal Geographies, used Copernicus Sentinel-2 data to detect changes in surface water across Doñana NP, one of Europe's most important wetland ecosystems. Doñana National Park's famous wetlands face long-term decline, a new study based on satellite research shows. After 2010, the decline stopped looking gradual and began piling up fast enough to dominate the whole twenty-year record. Ramírez tied the acceleration to hotter conditions and sharper drying across the region, not to a single bad year. “Temperatures began to rise and, above all, rainfall dropped sharply, compounded by the illegal extraction of water resources in the area,” said Juidias. Hotter weather and illegal pumping increase drying and reduce the marsh’s ability to recover.

The new algorithm developed by the research team reliably distinguishes between surface water and vegetation, providing a predictive tool which highlights long-term change across the flat floodplain system. Based on current climatic and hydrological conditions, projections estimate disappearance of the marshland in roughly 61 years, with more pessimistic scenarios suggesting loss within 45 years and optimistic ones extending to 175 years, depending on future rainfall and temperature trends. On Spain’s southwest coast, hundreds of thousands of water birds rest and winter in Doñana’s park. Seasonal flooding feeds reed beds, mudflats, insects and fish, so fewer wet months ripple quickly through breeding and migration. The World Heritage page notes more than 500,000 wintering waterfowl there, showing how far local drying can travel ecologically. Loss of shallow water reduces food, shelter and timing for birds moving between continents.

Doñana's flat, low-lying topography and dependence on seasonal flooding make it especially sensitive to changes in rainfall and groundwater levels. Historical pressures, including intensive agriculture, river modifications and aquifer depletion, have already altered flooding patterns and reduced habitat quality for flora and fauna dependent on periodic inundation. Beneath the marsh sits an aquifer, underground rock and sand which stores water, and pumping can thin the shallow supply feeding wet soils. Another paper found that pumping displaced groundwater flow by several miles and cut water moving toward protected areas. Hotter air also raises evapotranspiration, water lost as soil and plants release moisture, so rain leaves the marsh faster than before. When less water arrives from below and more escapes above, the surface dries even after decent rainfall. Future warming and rainfall will decide how quickly today’s loss becomes total disappearance, and the range is wide.

In the study’s harshest case, the marsh lasts about 45 years, while the most hopeful case stretches to 175 years. The wide range reflects climate uncertainty and rising drought risk flagged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Study showed that worsening conditions in Doñana are having international consequences for bird populations, with nine of 15 wildfowl species studied experiencing negative trends in wintering numbers. In 2023, an annual census of wintering birds in the national park returned the lowest numbers in 40 years. “The first measure must be ‘drastic’,” Ramírez said, arguing for permanent well closures and real-time checks on water use. Ramírez also pointed to more efficient farming, restored wet patches, and treated wastewater reuse to ease pressure on groundwater. These actions may not reverse the damage but could extend the marsh’s lifespan. Because this satellite-based monitoring system is cheap and automated, its value reaches past one Spanish wetland today. Sentinel-2 provides frequent coverage, allowing early detection of drying trends. This is especially useful in drought-prone places where wet ground hides under plants, then vanishes between surveys." Even the optimistic track still describes a long drying era, not a return to the old marsh.

Closing illegal wells sits at the top of the response list because the wetland cannot recover while uncounted pumping continues. A tool that scales across wetlands gives managers earlier warnings, but it still depends on rules people will enforce. Doñana’s story now reads as both a local warning and a measurable test of how fast human pressure can drain a protected wetland. Satellites can show the loss with unusual clarity, but whether this countdown slows depends on choices made above ground. This latest study provides stark satellite evidence that highlights how rapidly wetland conditions can change across critical sites, with significant implications for biodiversity and migratory bird populations which rely on its waters every year.